Elite Eight Betting Trends

[carlitosway]

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Steve Makinen reveals betting trends you need to know for the Elite Eight games of March Madness.

March Madness Elite Eight Betting Trends​

Continuing my series for the NCAA tournament, here are the Elite Eight betting trends using the data from my Round-by-Round and Conference Trends articles in the VSiN Bracket Mania Betting Guide. Best of luck on

Elite Eight Games​

• The Elite Eight round has for long been a dangerous spot for better-seeded teams, as they are just 47-45 SU and 33-55-4 ATS (37.5%) since 2000. (AGAINST DUKE -6, CONNECTICUT -8.5, PURDUE -3, ALABAMA -3.5)
• Elite Eight favorites of 4-points or fewer have gone just 2-10 SU and 1-10-1 ATS (9.1%) in their last 12 games and are just 15-33-1 ATS (31.3%) since 1998. (AGAINST PURDUE -3, ALABAMA -3.5)
• Elite Eight games have been decisive, with outright winners owning a stellar record of 61-5-2 ATS (92.4%) since 2006. (ON ALL OUTRIGHT WINNERS)
• The Elite Eight round is clearly a “survival round” for #1 seeds, as they are just 32-25 SU but 23-30-4 ATS (43.4%) in this round since 2001. (AGAINST CONNECTICUT -8.5, PURDUE -3)
• The Elite Eight round has easily been the best round to play Overs on totals, 87-63-2 (58%) since 2001. In games with lower totals of 143 or less, it has been 59 Overs 29 Unders, for 67%. (OVER 164 CLM-ALA, OVER 143 DUK-NCST, OVER 155 CONN-ILL, OVER 148 PUR-TEN)
• In Elite Eight games between teams “both not supposed to be there,” or both seeded #3 or worse, the worse seeded team has gone 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS (80%) since 2013. (ON NC STATE +6, CLEMSON +3.5)

Applicable Conference Trends for Elite Eight Round Games​

ACC

• Over the last two NCAA tournaments, the ACC boasts a record of 32-11 SU and 32-10-1 ATS (76.2%). (ON CLEMSON +3.5)
• In the role of pick ’em or small underdog (up to 4.5 points), ACC teams are currently on a 19-3 ATS (86.4%) surge, including 12 straight covers. (ON CLEMSON +3.5)
• ACC teams playing as double-digit seeds are 18-8-2 ATS (69.2%) since 2012. (ON NC STATE +6)
• Seventeen of the last 22 NCAA tourney matchups between the ACC and SEC have gone Under the total (77.3%). (UNDER 164 CLM-ALA)
• There have been eight tourney matchups since 2001, pitting ACC foes against one another…All eight went Over the total (100%), producing 150 PPG on totals averaging 142. (OVER 143 DUK-NCST)

Big East

• The top two seeded (#1 seed and #2 seed) from the Big East have validated their positions by going 25-6 SU and 22-9 ATS (71%) in the NCAAs since 2016. (ON CONNECTICUT -8.5)
• Favorites are 47-19 ATS (71.2%) in the last 66 Big East NCAA tourney games, including 19-5 ATS the last two years. (ON CONNECTICUT -8.5)

Big Ten

• Big Ten teams are on a 12-8 SU and 14-5-1 ATS (73.7%) run vs. SEC foes in the NCAA tourney. (ON PURDUE -3)
• For as good as Big Ten teams have been in the big favorite role, they have been brutal as underdogs of 5.5 points or more in the tournament, 6-50 SU and 21-35 ATS (37.5%) since 1998. (AGAINST ILLINOIS +8.5)
• In tourney games of the second round and later, Big Ten teams are just 20-33 SU and 21-30-2 ATS (41.2%) since 2017. (AGAINST ILLINOIS +8.5, PURDUE -3)

SEC

• The last five NCAA tournaments have been a struggle for SEC teams, as they are just 43-41 SU and 32-52 ATS (38.1%) since the Friday of the first round in the 2018 tourney. (AGAINST ALABAMA -3.5, TENNESSEE +3)
• Underdogs are 50-27 ATS (64.9%) in the last 77 SEC NCAA tourney games overall. (AGAINST ALABAMA -3.5 – ON TENNESSEE +3)
• As pick ’ems or small favorites of five points or less, SEC teams are an ugly 43-52 SU and 35-56-4 ATS (38.5%) in the NCAAs since 1999. (AGAINST ALABAMA -3.5)
• SEC teams are on a 16-7 Over the total run in Elite Eight games. (OVER 164 ALA-CLM, OVER 148 TEN-PUR)
• The #4 seed and the SEC haven’t meshed well of late, as they are 17-24 ATS (41.5%) in that spot since 2000 and have gone Under the total at a 29-11-1 (72.5%) rate. (AGAINST ALABAMA -3.5 – UNDER 164 ALA-CLM)

Head-to-Head Series Trends for the Elite Eight​

(663) CLEMSON vs. (654) ALABAMA
* CLEMSON is on a 3-0 SU and ATS streak versus Alabama, including a 85-77 win in November 2023. Five of the last six games between these teams have gone Under the total.
(655) TENNESSEE vs. (656) PURDUE
* PURDUE is 3-1 SU and ATS versus Tennessee since 2009, with all games in the set decided by five points or fewer. The three most recent contests went Over the total.
(657) NC STATE vs. (658) DUKE
* NC STATE beat Duke 74-69 in the ACC tournament just 2-1/2 weeks ago. The last four games between these conference rivals went Under the total.

 

[skoda]

2:20 p.m. ET: Tennessee vs Purdue (-3.5, 147.5)

This Midwest Region matchup will be played at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. Tennessee (27-8) is the 2-seed and just outlasted Creighton 82-75 in the Sweet 16. Meanwhile, Purdue (32-4) is the 1-seed and just brushed aside Gonzaga 80-68 in the Sweet 16. This line opened with Purdue listed as a 3-point neutral site favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with Purdue, who is receiving 78% of spread bets and 82% of spread dollars. This lopsided one-way support has driven Purdue up from -3 to -3.5. However, now that the hook has appeared we’ve seen some sharp buyback on Tennessee +3.5, with some books leaning back down toward +3. Ken Pom has Purdue winning by three points (76-73), which provides some actionable value on Tennessee plus the hook (+3.5). Tennessee is the top contrarian play of the day, receiving only 28% of spread bets. Tennessee has the better defensive efficiency (3rd vs 19th), better free throw shooting (75% vs 72%) and takes better care of the ball (37th in turnovers vs 131st). Tennessee ranks 73rd at forcing turnovers compared to 342nd for Purdue.

5:05 p.m. ET: NC State vs Duke (-7, 143)

This South Region matchup will be played at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. NC State (25-14) is the 11-seed and just upset Marquette 67-58 in the Sweet 16. Similarly, Duke (27-8) is the 4-seed and just upset Houston 54-51 in the Sweet 16. This line opened with Duke listed as a 6.5-point neutral site favorite. The public says this line is a bit high, with 59% of spread bets and 58% of spread dollars taking the points with NC State. However, despite a majority of bets backing NC State we’ve seen this line move further toward Duke (-6.5 to -7). This signals some sharp reverse line movement on Duke, with pros fading the trendy dog Wolfpack. Ken Pom has Duke winning by nine points (78-69), which provides actionable value on Duke at the current price. Duke has the better offensive efficiency (7th vs 43rd), better defensive efficiency (14th vs 57th), better effective field goal percentage (55% vs 51%) and better three-point shooting (38% vs 35%). NC State is a combined 6-0 ATS as a dog in the ACC and NCAA Tournament. We’ve also seen some respected money hit the under, dropping the total from 144 to 143.

This drop is notable because 61% of bets are taking the over yet the total fell, indicating some sharp reverse line movement on the under.

My vote goes Under in 2nd game..